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New Numbers Indicate the Economy Was in a Deepening Recession, Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse CPI-adjusted, Real Retail Sales declined by 1.04% (-1.04%) month-to-month in March 2023, down by 1.95% (-1.95%) year-to-year, with First-Quarter 2023 Real Retail Sales declining 0.30% (-0.30%) year-to-year, down for the fourth time in the last five quarters, otherwise gyrating with extreme volatility in recent monthly automobile sales. March 2023 activity versus the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Trough for the newly redefined (post-May 2020) headline M1 (now including Savings Deposits, at about 92% of M2) was up by a headline 375.8%, albeit on a nonsensical, not comparable and inconsistent basis, down from 385.4% in February. Despite political hype to the contrary, such is helping to accelerate the pace of domestic Inflation. December 2020 Cass Freight Index Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity Internationally, these activities are more broadly referred to as the shadow economy. Indeed, setting up accelerating inflation or hyperinflation, current extreme Monetary and Fiscal stimuli likely will be expanded, not reduced. The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab here reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. That said, there have numerous stories in recent months of misreported, headline employment gains. Accordingly, ongoing massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli will be needed, and likely will expand into 2024/2025, irrespective of the FOMCs pronounced tightening. As demonstrated in recent decades, FOMC stimulus likely will remain in play, as targeted by the FOMC, primarily, in order to prevent a collapse in the Banking System, or to magnify liquidity in the Banking System, which owns and controls the Federal Reserve, not to stimulate the Broad Economy, per se. Aside from some short-term reporting gimmicks, Payroll Employment probably still is the highest-quality economic statistic published by the U.S. Government, at present, given current data and the reporting-compromised conditions of a still-evolving Pandemic/ post-Pandemic environment. For those looking to subscribe, please go to the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen did not describe in her Opening Message for 2021, as she had in 2020, and as her recent predecessors had done, that the current Fiscal Path was Unsustainable. Yet that concept still appeared early in the Opening Summary: The debt-to-GDP ratio was about 100 percent at the end of FY 2021 [around 122% in November 2022 WJW]. Inflation is already in the double digits, according to ShadowStats' John Williams, and will still grow. Those details are posted and graphed on the Alternate Data Tab. Money Supply and Monetary Base detail follows in the later FEDERAL RESERVE Section and its SYSTEMIC RISK -- MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE coverage (just keep scrolling down), along with expanded material in conjunction with the updated Money Supply numbers and graph posted on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab of www.shadowstats.com (see the link above). Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. From a revised -101.7 (previously -101.7) billion, from a revised -98.2 billion in December, its worst monthly showing since -112.4 billion in October 2022. ET]. That said, the aggregate series quarterly sales, have been in annual decline for each of the last seven quarters, up through the current 1q2023, in an otherwise deepening housing recession. That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. INFORMAL ECONOMY SIZE AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP. (13) April 12th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here). Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% Nonetheless, systemic Turmoil is still evolving, with both the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government continuing to drive uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, between unconstrained Money Supply growth (irrespective of Balance Sheet Reduction) and uncontained Deficit Spending, with U.S. Treasury Debt currently pushing to break the $31.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling. G E N E R A L .. H E A D L I N E S .. -- Contrary to the happy political and financial media hype, the Pandemic-driven and FOMC-exacerbated U.S. Economic Collapse continues to harden in protracted non-Recovery, amidst mounting evidence of renewed Economic Downturn and recent excessive Inflation, which is about to re-accelerate, and still vulnerable to evolving Russia-Ukraine War risks, seriously conflicted FOMC monetary policies, and extraordinarily dangerous Administration fiscal activity. Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. -- Despite recent GDP Benchmark Revisions and current gimmicked reporting, key Economic Series show not only that the Pandemic-driven Economic Collapse was worse than headlined, but also that the still-unfolding Recovery has been much weaker than indicated. TRA's research provides businesses with an understanding of the current operating market which is important in making future decisions. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. While shifting focus to the troubled banking system, FOMC hopes and activities still are concentrated on some way of triggering a Recession, again, ostensibly to help contain inflation otherwise being driven by a non-existent overheating economy, where the mounting inflation pressures primarily are due otherwise, to continuing, extreme levels of Money Supply creation. Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023 (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). In the past, there have been various estimates of the economic impact and the size of shadow economy in Australia by organisations such as the Black Economy Taskforce External Link and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago (6) April 24th (Census Bureau). SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE - May 1st to May 3rd A major Subscriber-Only e-mail update is pending for later today. Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. Surging Monetary Base, Reserves and Currency Indicate Intensifying Systemic Problems The revisions did not change quarterly patterns meaningfully, but did show that broader headline activity generally had been some somewhat slower than previously estimated in the last two years [graphs were plotted in the Subscriber-only e-mail of April 14th]. Informal Economy Sizes. That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. Permits up strongly but it's all apts inSouth. Having largely nonfunctional Executive and Congressional branches of the U.S. Government does little to help stabilize the domestic Economy or Inflation. He received an A.B. 1461. In contrast, the usually less meaningfully sampled Housing Starts, tend to be more volatile in revision. 2023 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams. Here are the results. In the end, the Fed has little choice but to support the banks and to let inflation run its course. IMPORTANT: Commentary postings are advised directly to Subscribers by coincident e-mail, along with a direct link to the posted Commentary and any needed login detail. Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation Where monthly jobs growth in the key Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Construction Sectors has turned flat-to-minus, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector showed continued strong, albeit slowing monthly growth, still holding shy by more than 2% (-2%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level of activity. Trailblazer builds: Strengthen your main character up. That said, expanded Federal Government Deficit Spending continues, currently at the Debt Ceiling. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. Including Commercial Aircraft, aggregate New Orders recovered pre-Pandemic levels in Third-Quarter 2020. (10) April 14th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Fed, ShadowStats) [See the Opening Comments on the April 24th annual benchmark revisions to Retail Sales, which continue to show flat to negative annual contractions and quarterly contractions, net of inflation.] Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. According to the stats bureau, output of solar cells rose 53.2% and new-energy automobiles (mostly electric vehicles) rose 22.5% . In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The linear transformation of CPI tracks the $89 shadowstats series almost perfectly. -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. John Williams, Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary The ShadowStats-Alternate Consumer Inflation Measures were created by reverse-engineering the CPI-U-RS series, and adding in estimates of the inflation effects of factors not otherwise estimated by the BLS, such as more-frequent (two-years versus ten-years) reweighting of the CPI series. ShadowStats Defined "Basic M1" -- Combined Currency and Demand Deposits -- Still Reflects the Extraordinary Liquidity Flight to, and Surge in the Narrower Money Supply Part II --REGULAR ALERTS - Weekly Review: ECONOMY, MONEY SUPPLY AND INFLATION ALERTS: Broad Economy continues in downturn, amidst spiking Inflation. Scroll down for the latest ShadowStats Outlook, Background Information on the U.S. Economy, Financial System (FOMC), Financial Markets and Alternate Data, also for publicly available Special Reports and contact information. He received an A.B. Shadowstats.comis a website that analyzes and offers alternatives to government economic statistics for the United States. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Move to Cash, Spiking Traditional Money Supply M1 Williams told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that the true headline . [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. In summary, Shadow Stats constructed their alternative measure by taking a 5.1% difference between CPIU and CPIURS (the BLS's retroactive adjustment) and misinterpreted it as an ANNUAL difference when it was in fact a CUMULATIVE difference. New Numbers Show Production Peaked in August 2018 and Entered Protracted Decline, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 1.11% (-1.11%) Below the Pre-Great Recession Peak Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series. The Shadow TUAS can carry payloads up to 27kg (60lb) including sensors and electronic warfare systems. Against Pre-Pandemic levels, Currency moved from a gain of 27.9% in February to 38.7% in March 2023, with parallel increases from 83.4% to 96.6% for Reserves, and from 54.11% to 61.3% in aggregate Monetary Base. The service costs $49.95 for a single month, $39.95 per month for a three-month subscription and $34.95 per month for a 12-month subscription. That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. A similar pattern is likely with the Census Bureaus May 1st release of March 2023 nominal Construction Spending, given the activity patterns and related needed inflation-adjustments already in play. Using the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics used in the 1980s, John Williams, the founder of ShadowStats, determined that headline inflation should be much higher than 5.4%, the latest June release. The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 The SGS-Alternate GDP reflects the inflation-adjusted, or real, year-to-year GDP change, adjusted for distortions in government inflation usage and methodological changes that have resulted in a built-in upside bias to official reporting. ET), with posing here May 2nd; Wednesday, May 3rd; the May FOMC Meeting draws to a close, with a Press Release (at 2:00 p.m. For those looking to subscribe, please go to the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). MARCH 2023 MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE -- (April 25th, Federal Reserve Board [FRB], with ShadowStats Supplement). The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Many segments and regions of the U.S. economy, and individual, personal circumstances have suffered, and continue to suffer severe structural damage from the shutdown, areas that likely will take years to recover fully. Current U.S. Economy Remains Far from a Full Recovery 1461. The FOMC announced in its March 22nd Press Release: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. That said, in Business Cycle definitions, an economic downturn traditionally has been known as a Depression, which has two components the Recession and the Recovery. After the economic terror of the Great Depression, economic downturns took on the less-frightening Recession nomenclature. March 2023 Money Supply numbers and historic tables have been posted and graphed to the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the Menu Bar above), with more extensive analysis, graphs and coverage following in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending Commentary No. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. December 2020 Real Retail Sales Declined for the Third Straight Month, and Fourth-Quarter 2020 Activity Relapsed into Quarterly Contraction U.S. Dollar. The aggregate Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit for 2022 was unrevised at -1,320.2 Billion Chained (2012) Dollars, again, its worst showing in history. One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. -- With fundamental U.S. Dollar debasement (inflation) intensifying, irrespective of short-lived games with reduced oil prices, and especially in the context of the Fed and related entities having to balance, bail out or backstop an increasingly troubled Financial System, holding physical Gold and Silver protects the purchasing power of ones assets, irrespective of any near-term Central Bank or other precious metals price machinations to the contrary. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. -- The University of Michigans full-month release of the April 2023 Consumer Sentiment reading held little changed at 63.5, against its initial estimate of 63.5, up from 62.0 in March 2023, holding shy by 37.1% (-37.1%)[previously by 38.6% (-38.6%) in March] of ever recovering its February 2020 pre-Pandemic peak level of 101.0. Read more about the World Economics Informal Economy database. ShadowStats publishes "alternate" measures of inflation and pretends to do so by employing the methods the statistics bureau used to employ, that is, by ignoring the fact that we consume . The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. October Industrial Production Continued in L-Shaped Recovery, With Annual Change Flattening Out in Negative Territory That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. Thereafter, an Expansion is in place until the next formal Peak, which, the NBER does time. Note also that the period of time in which the blue line departs from the CPI transformation is 2007-2009, a time in which inflation mania was at its peak. A new analysis will follow with preliminary April 2023 numbers late this coming week. L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S -- See the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE for the current FOMC coverage and detail of February and early March 2023 Monetary Conditions. Australia's Government Strengthens Grip With By-Election Win. Annual Boom of 5.7% in October Real Retail Sales Was Not Credible; Related Retail Employment and Consumer Goods Production Continued in Annual Decline, Despite the Gain in Freight Activity In contrast, the usually less meaningfully sampled Housing Starts, tend to be more volatile in revision. U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates [See the earlier headline Payroll discussions and later FOMC comments.] Year-to-Year Gain in Monthly November M1 Jumped to a Record 53.2% from the Prior Record of 42.3% in October, Surged to 65.6% in Week-Ended November 30th Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). Signals of renewed, faltering activity increasingly have taken on the mantle of a new Recession. PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: "We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery" For all readers, in general, if you have any questions or otherwise would like to communicate, please e-mail [email protected] or call (707) 763-5786. (11) April 14th (CassInfo.com) The March 2023 Cass Freight Index release noted that The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in March as freight markets continue to work through an extended soft patch. That monthly decline of 1.0% (-1.0%) was not seasonally adjusted, with a related unadjusted year-to-year drop of 4.0% (-4.0%). Please contact [email protected] for further details or any questions. There Is No V-Shaped Recovery (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). The Fed will release the headline April 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base data at 1:00 p.m. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. With a further quarter-point rate hike expected out of this weeks May 2nd to 3rd FOMC Meeting, following nine consecutive FOMC Meeting rate hikes (0.25% at the last three meetings, 0.50% and 0.75% earlier), the U.S. Central Bank appears intent on using surging interest rates to drive the U.S. economy into the ground. ET). Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006 The headline March 2023 Monetary Base, jumped by 4.7% month-to-month to a seven-month high, as the FOMC fed emergency funding into Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks, at a time of systemic liquidity concerns. Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking), Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago First-Quarter 2021 GDP Increasingly Is Set for a Relapsing Quarterly Contraction (13) April 12th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). An informal economy (informal sector or shadow economy) is the part of any economy that is neither officially taxed nor monitored. The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. Please note: Our Data Download is currently only providing the 1980-Based numbers, but 1990-Based numbers will be introduced shortly. "John" Williams was born in 1949. Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Developing Inflation and Financial-Market Turmoil, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Soared to an April 2020 Peak of About 32%, Worse Than in the Great Depression; Such Was Against a January 2020 Pre-Pandemic U.3 Unemployment Rate of 3.5% Theoretically Equivalent Third-Quarter 2020 GDP (Product) and GDI (Income) Rebounded by Varying Annualized Quarterly Gains of 33.1% and 25.5%, Still Holding Far Shy of Economic Recovery The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart. ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. Commentary No. An Increasing Number of Unemployed People Were Misclassified as Employed; Corrected December Unemployment Would Have Jumped, Instead of Holding at 6.7% Underlying headlines of better-quality U.S. economic numbers, reviewed here in Part II [see Points (1) to (18)], suggest that the United States has been in Recession since First-Quarter 2022, allowing for the political games played with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve depletion, which otherwise also accounted for the headline boost in Second-Half 2022 (Third- and Fourth-Quarter 2022) GDP growth. The NBER called an end to the 2020 Recession on July 19th, again, just the first leg of the Depression. Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE - May 1st to May 3rd A major Subscriber-Only e-mail update is pending for later today. Consider -- Despite significant Recovery off the Pandemic-Driven Economic Trough of April 2020, the February 2023 Payroll Employment has recovered its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic/ Recession Peak, despite indications of a renewed slowdown. (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). (II) - REGULAR ALERTS Again, as noted after the February 2023 rate hike, despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powells continued downplaying risks for the FOMCs hoped-for imminent Recession, which otherwise ostensibly is why he was raising rates, that downturn already was and is in play. Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation, Four Million Unemployed People Are Missing from the Headline Labor Force Unprecedented in 40-Plus Years of Weekly Monetary Reporting: Money Supply M1 Jumped by 14.1% in the Last Two Weeks, in a Post-Election / COVID-19 Flight to Cash, From M2 to M1 January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. (14) April 7th (Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, and ShadowStats.com). Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. All previous Commentaries are available in, or accessible from, the upper left-hand column of this www.shadowstats.com Home Page. Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. The dotted lines are the overlayed series created from the official CPI statistics. March 2023 Housing Starts dropped year-to-year by a meaningful 17.2% (-17.2%) +/- 9.1%, with a 90% confidence interval, versus a revised 19.4% (-19.4%) [previously 18.4% (-18.4%)] in February. This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. The newsletter is published as part of my economic consulting services. -- The Feds Balance Sheet Reduction formally began in June 2022 and should have begun to relieve some Money Supply pressures on Inflation at that time, in theory. Nov 26, 2013 Housing Starts delayed again. Real Annual Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Turned Negative, Amidst Renewed Slowing in Commercial Aircraft Orders 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W Single-family auths flat in Sep/Oct. The projected continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current policy is unsustainable. Allowing for the 2021 Unfunded Liabilities, reflected here, that Debt-to-GDP ratio already was 552% at the end of Fiscal Year 2021. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. Shadowstats debunked. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.] ap lang lakota tradition answer key,

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